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Buffalo Bills Fantasy Preview

2018 Projections

Note: all points are calculated with PPR scoring
Team Reception Breakdown

Josh Allen: 192.32 total, 12.0 ppg (270/475 passing, 3183 yards, 19 TD, 13 INT; 150 yards rushing, 1 TD, 3 fumbles lost)
I had Allen as the likely starter before McCarron went down, but with McCarron’s injury it just seems like destiny for Allen to be under center come week 1. However, it would not be surprising to see Allen come in dead last among starting QBs in fantasy. The offensive line is worse than last year, there’s little in the way of receiving talent or depth, and LeSean McCoy is starting to get up there in both miles and age. This is not going to be a high scoring offense, and what little they do get will likely come on the back of the running game. Allen also has a penchant for turnovers, which his receivers will not help him overcome. Allen is best left on waivers to start the season.

LeSean McCoy: 271.6 total, 17.0 ppg (275 carries, 1128 yards, 8 TD, 1 fumble lost; 60 Rec, 468 yards, 1 TD)
Chris Ivory: 117.8 total, 7.4 ppg (125 carries, 488 yards, 6 TD, 2 fumbles lost; 20 Rec, 170 yards, 0 TD)
I wouldn’t worry about Shady’s legal situation. Regardless of what might eventually come of it, the whole thing is a mess right now so any suspension he might get won’t be at least until next year. What I’m more concerned about is Shady’s age and mileage. The guy has been a workhorse back for most of a decade and is now 30. He’s shown surprising longevity so far, but it can only last so long. It doesn’t help him that Buffalo really doesn’t have much of an offense outside the running game, and even there they made McCoy’s like more difficult by downgrading the offensive line. He should still see the volume to be a back end RB1, but he could be risky if the wheels finally do fall off. The Bills also brought in Chris Ivory as McCoy’s new backup. Ivory will primarily be a handcuff, but may actually hold some standalone value as a short yardage back if the Bills try to preserve McCoy. You could do worse with a late round flyer.

Kelvin Benjamin: 171.0 total, 10.7 ppg (50 Rec, 750 yards, 8 TD, 1 fumble lost)
Jeremy Kerley: 65.5 total, 4.1 ppg (30 Rec, 315 yards, 1 TD, 1 fumble lost)
Kelvin Benjamin should quickly become Josh Allen’s best friend; he’s big and can get deep, two very important traits when catching passes from someone with a cannon for an arm. He does carry some injury risk but is generally capable of playing through it, albeit at lowered efficiency. However, this is still a low volume offense. Benjamin will likely be the lead receiver by miles this year and still isn’t likely to make it any higher than WR3 status for fantasy purposes. The only other name worth watching is Jeremy Kerley. He’s flown almost entirely under the radar despite being pretty much locked in as the WR2/slot receiver. He’s not worth drafting, but is a good name to include on your watch list in case Benjamin runs into injury trouble. I wouldn’t be concerned over Corey Coleman. He’s a one-trick pony with major injury concerns, and is reportedly having troubles with the playbook to boot.

Charles Clay: 133.5 total, 8.3 ppg (55 Rec, 605 yards, 3 TD, 0 fumbles lost)
Clay has quietly been one of the more consistent tight ends in fantasy for several years now. He’s not going to win you weeks, but he will reliably get you something better than a 0. That will likely hold especially true this year with a rookie QB. He’s a good pickup for those who like to draft tight ends late. It’s worth keeping an eye on the battle for the backup spot between Logan Thomas and Nick O’Leary. Neither will carry much standalone value, but Clay has played a full 16 games only once in 7 years; one of the backups will most likely get a couple starts.

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