Green Bay Packers Fantasy Preview

2018 Projections

Note: all points are calculated with PPR scoring
Team Reception Breakdown

Aaron Rodgers: 340.9 total, 21.3 ppg (380/575 passing, 4485 yards, 36 TD, 8 INT; 275 yards rushing, 2 TD, 3 fumbles lost)
Joe Philbin, the architect of Aaron Rodgers’s early career success, returns to Green Bay just in time for a changing of the guard at receiver. Rodgers was not happy about Jordy Nelson getting dealt, but with Adams and Graham to throw to I don’t think his numbers suffer for it. I do think his pass attempts come down a bit since it looks like Green Bay will have a functional run game again, but a functional run game also increases Rodgers’s efficiency so his overall numbers should be more or less unchanged. He is an elite QB1 and will be in the thick of the competition to be the overall QB1 in fantasy this year.

Jamaal Williams: 136.9 total, 8.6 ppg (155 carries, 605 yards, 5 TD, 0 fumbles lost; 20 Rec, 204 yards, 1 TD)
Ty Montgomery: 131.5 total, 8.2 ppg (75 carries, 345 yards, 1 TD, 1 fumble lost; 45 Rec, 360 yards, 2 TD)
Aaron Jones: 92.6 total, 5.8 ppg (115 carries, 587 yards, 3 TD, 0 fumbles lost; 10 Rec, 59 yards, 0 TD)
Being the lead back in a Rodgers-led offense is historically a great position to be in. What’s painful about this running back group is that there isn’t a lead back. Jones looked like the best pure runner of the group, but wasn’t really involved in the passing game. TyMo looked great catching passes out of the backfield, but quickly wore out the more carries he took. Williams didn’t look particularly great at either thing, but he was the only one to be consistently competent at both. This is a nasty three-headed backfield where cumulatively you have a solid RB1/2 but individually none are worth more than RB4 status. However, with Jones suspended for 2 games to start the season and all 3 struggling with injuries last year, all 3 are worth late round flyers; every injury in this backfield will provide a significant boost in fantasy to whoever is left.

Davante Adams: 311 total, 19.4 ppg (100 Rec, 1350 yards, 13 TD, 1 fumble lost)
Randall Cobb: 153 total, 9.6 ppg (60 Rec, 630 yards, 5 TD, 0 fumbles lost)
Geronimo Allison: 132.4 total, 8.3 ppg (45 Rec, 594 yards, 5 TD, 1 fumble lost)
I find it fascinating that general consensus recognizes that Adams is in a great situation but refuses to acknowledge him as a top 5 receiver in fantasy, much less top 3. Yes, Adams struggled with consistency early in his career, but he looked great last year and is now in the coveted WR1 role in an Aaron Rodgers offense. He will be an elite WR this year and will absolutely be in the race for overall WR1 in fantasy. The best part? It’s an Aaron Rodgers offense, so the WR1 isn’t the only relevant name. Randall Cobb has struggled with nagging injuries for a few years now and appears to be off to slow start this year too, but he’s still shifty. I’d downgrade him from previous years to a WR4, but he is absolutely still worth rostering. Meanwhile, it looks like Geronimo Allison has solidified the WR3 role in the offense. He’s only a late round flyer at the moment, but if Cobb continues to struggle with injuries Allison has a surprisingly high ceiling.

Jimmy Graham: 167.8 total, 10.5 ppg (60 Rec, 678 yards, 7 TD, 1 fumble lost)
Graham certainly doesn’t have the same speed as he did during his New Orleans days, but he’s still a big body with good hands. He’ll effectively be the possession and red zone target for Rodgers; expect plenty of short targets for first downs and touchdowns. He won’t be an elite tight end, but he should reliably provide TE1 weeks. Draft him with confidence.

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