Note: all points are calculated with PPR scoring
Team Reception Breakdown
Andrew Luck: 300.5 total, 18.8 ppg (365/600 passing, 4500 yards, 32 TD, 16 INT; 245 yards rushing, 1 TD, 3 fumbles lost)
I’m sure when Luck lost a year to injury he was hoping to come back to a slightly better team. At the moment, that doesn’t appear that’s the case. The defense doesn’t look any better than last year on paper, the running backs as a whole have been underwhelming, and there’s no receiver worth mentioning other than T. Y. Hilton. Hopefully the improvements on the offensive line are actually improvements this time if the Colts want to see Luck survive the rest of his contract. New head coach Frank Reich will be looking to install the same aggressive scheme the Eagles used last year, which should fit Luck’s strengths. All together, this should mean that Luck comes out firing. He should flirt with being a top 5 fantasy QB, assuming he stays healthy.
Marlon Mack: 202.4 total, 12.7 ppg (175 carries, 700 yards, 6 TD, 1 fumble lost; 40 Rec, 404 yards, 3 TD)
Nyheim Hines: 98.8 total, 6.2 ppg (50 carries, 215 yards, 0 TD, 2 fumbles lost; 35 Rec, 343 yards, 2 TD)
Jordan Wilkins: 70.5 total, 4.4 ppg (100 carries, 380 yards, 46 TD, 0 fumbles lost; 5 Rec, 35 yards, 0 TD)
What a mess in the Colts backfield. Mack is far from ideal for a lead back, but there’s no one behind him really pushing him for snaps. Hines figured to be the scatback of the bunch and had even been used out of the slot in camp, but his struggles to hold onto the ball have buried him on the depth chart. Wilkins hasn’t been particularly impressive. Journeyman Christine Michael is currently splitting first team reps with Wilkins while Mack is sidelined, which may extend into the regular season. Robert Turbin probably has the most productive history of the bunch, be he’s suspended the first four games and will likely be fighting an uphill battle to see playing time when he returns. Ultimately Michael and Turbin currently only hold minimal value and are not worth drafting. Wilkins holds no current value, but has a realistic shot at working his way into the starting rotation by the end of the year. He’s a decent late round flyer. Hines is the most likely backup to hold value at some point due to his pass-catching ability, but he’ll need to stop fumbling before the coaching staff trusts him with that. He can also be treated as a late round flyer. Mack looks like the lead back by default and should be a borderline RB2/3, potentially working his way up to solid RB2 status if he manages to work his way into a bellcow role.
T. Y. Hilton: 286.3 total, 17.9 ppg (90 Rec, 1503 yards, 8 TD, 1 fumble lost)
Ryan Grant: 110.4 total, 6.9 ppg (40 Rec, 464 yards, 4 TD, 0 fumbles lost)
Chester Rogers: 78.7 total, 4.9 ppg (25 Rec, 417 yards, 2 TD, 0 fumbles lost)
With a healthy Andrew Luck, Hilton should return to being an elite fantasy wide receiver. The talent level really drops off after that though. The fact that newly signed Ryan Grant is the default second receiver just by having an average camp tells you all you really need to know. Grant holds some value as the second receiver, but I’d consider it a successful year for him if he could make it to WR5 territory. Rogers appears to be filling in as the third receiver, but regularly has soft tissue injuries and is not relevant for fantasy. In theory Grant could hold some small upside, but Hilton is the only receiver here who is definitely worth drafting.
Jack Doyle: 168.1 total, 10.5 ppg (65 Rec, 631 yards, 7 TD, 1 fumble lost)
Eric Ebron: 145.0 total, 9.1 ppg (50 Rec, 590 yards, 6 TD, 0 fumbles lost)
With a pitiful running game and no notable depth at receiver, Luck is going to rely heavily on his dynamic duo at tight end. Doyle is the safer target here as he already has rapport with Luck and currently sits atop the depth chart. Ebron carries some risk as his inconsistency from Detroit may follow him, but he’s still a better target than the backup wide receivers so he should see enough volume to be fantasy-relevant. Doyle should be in the lower half of the TE1’s while Ebron should be a high end TE2 with some upside.