Note: all points are calculated with PPR scoring
Team Reception Breakdown
Patrick Mahomes: 240.8 total, 15.1 ppg (340/525 passing, 4095 yards, 23 TD, 13 INT; 90 yards rushing, 1 TD, 2 fumbles lost)
Mahomes walks into a starting QB job loaded with offensive weapons that figures to be playing in frequent shootouts due to an overall lack of talent on defense. No pressure. Between Kareem Hunt’s stellar rookie season and the return of Spencer Ware, this team should be fairly run-heavy to alleviate the pressure on both Mahomes and the defense. I’m not sure I trust head coach Andy Reid to play it that way though. I think 525 pass attempts is the most likely scenario for Mahomes, but I would also consider that his floor. Whenever he does throw though, it certainly won’t be dink and dunk; it’ll be bombs away to deep threats Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins. Mahomes should have plenty of yards off that, but he is also a threat to throw plenty of interceptions. Kinda the second coming of Brett Favre really. He has upside, but I would not trust him as my QB1.
Kareem Hunt: 287.4 total, 18.0 ppg (275 carries, 1238 yards, 9 TD, 1 fumble lost; 55 Rec, 446 yards, 2 TD)
Spencer Ware: 82.3 total, 5.1 ppg (75 carries, 360 yards, 3 TD, 1 fumble lost; 15 Rec, 153 yards, 0 TD)
Hunt and Ware were supposed to open last season as a 1A/1B backfield. After Ware went down with injury and Hunt took the NFL by storm, the split isn’t quite as even now. Technically Ware has some small standalone value, but his main value is as the handcuff to Hunt. Hunt should pick up where he left off last season as a middle-of-the-pack RB1. Ware is more RB5/6 who is a Hunt injury away from a bellcow role.
Tyreek Hill: 203.7 total, 12.7 ppg (70 Rec, 1057 yards, 5 TD, 1 fumble lost)
Sammy Watkins: 182.8 total, 11.4 ppg (55 Rec, 858 yards, 7 TD, 0 fumbles lost)
By the sounds of it Hill is still the WR1. However, it’s not like Watkins is going to have some token role. Both players are excellent deep threats and will be catching passes from a true gunslinger QB in a traditionally pass-happy offense. Hill should catch a few more passes, but I suspect the bigger Watkins will be more involved in the red zone. It’s unlikely that any other receiver has any role worth mentioning. Hill should be a borderline WR2/3 while Watkins will be a solid WR3.
Travis Kelce: 230.7 total, 14.4 ppg (85 Rec, 1097 yards, 6 TD, 0 fumbles lost)
Just because the Chiefs brought in a new toy at receiver doesn’t mean Kelce’s role will diminish. Younger QB’s typically like to lean on their tight end security blankets, and Mahomes would be a fool not to follow suit with someone as talented as Kelce. Kelce should remain at his perch as the second best tight end in fantasy football.