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Looking ahead to DraftKings, Week 1

Ah, 10 days into August.  That means the Daily Fantasy season is right around the corner.  DraftKings just dropped their first week salaries, and there are a few things to digest.  First, a little about my strategy for DFS in case you are new to the platform.DFS is split into a couple of different types of games: 50/50 and tournaments.

There are different strategies for each, if you are looking to win money.  If I am playing in a 50/50 game, I look for people with high floors.  I am not necessarily looking for the diamond in the rough that is going to get me 50 points.  I just want to avoid the player that is going to lay a goose egg.  All I have to do is beat 50% of the players in the room, and I win money.

A tournament is a completely different ballgame.  Not only do I want to hit the top point performers at each position, I want to hit the ones that have the fewest ownership percentages.  For example, if I choose Antonio Brown and he responds with 11 catches, 120 yds, and 2 touchdowns, that’s awesome.   The reality though is that he is probably owned by 30-40% of the field.  I am still neck and neck with all of those owners.  However if I fade Brown, and he doesn’t have a game that separates him from the pack, I potentially have a leg up on almost half the field.

With that in mind, let’s look at some of my favorite plays for Week 1:

 

Isaiah Crowell ($5300) – With Cleveland’s revamped Offensive Line, I’m looking for big things from Crowell this year.  He should get the lion’s share of carries, as Duke Johnson has been working with the receivers some this offseason.

Doug Baldwin ($6,700) – What does Doug Baldwin need to do to be viewed as a top receiver?  Baldwin has established himself as Russell Wilson’s go-to receiver and he is facing a Packers defense that was in the bottom half of the league defending the pass last year.  Vegas also has this game as one of the highest point totals of the week, so expect a shootout.

Jack Doyle ($3,700) – Dwayne Allen is no longer a Colt.  That should make Doyle more prevalent in the Red Zone game and offer him more TD opportunities.  Fade those contestants that are going to drop more than 5K on Olsen, Reed, and Gronk.  This is a huge opportunity to make up those points.

Carson Palmer ($6,000) – Palmer never ages.  Week one vs the Lions could prove to be another shootout, as both offenses have the potential to be among the lead leaders.  The Lions secondary, however?  Well let’s just say Fitz, John Brown, and company should find plenty of holes in coverage.

 

Now for a couple of names to stay away from if you are playing in tournaments.  These are a couple of players who are going to most likely be owned by a great deal of players in the first week, but I don’t think their salary justifies their production levels.

 

JacQuizz Rogers ($4,900) — With Doug Martin suspended to begin the season, Rogers is first in line to get the bulk of the snaps for the Bucs.  Against a Bengal defense that is expected to be stout in the trenches, I would stay away.  Vegas projects the Bucs to score in the 17 point range, and I’d have my money on those TDs coming from Evans or Jackson.

Ben Roethlisberger ($7,300) — I never want to be in the group that puts all their eggs in the top priced QB, especially if his last name isn’t Ryan.  Yes, Big Ben faces a Cleveland Browns defense that was abysmal last year.  However, this one is on the road and Roethlisberger wasn’t on the top of his game away from Pittsburgh last season.  Spend that big money elsewhere. 

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