Note: all points are calculated with PPR scoring
Team Reception Breakdown
Ryan Tannehill: 272.92 total, 17.1 ppg (345/525 passing, 4148 yards, 28 TD, 14 INT; 230 yards rushing, 1 TD, 3 fumbles lost)
Last time we saw Tannehill, he was really starting to catch on with new coach Adam Gase’s system. Then he tore his ACL and missed all of last year. Now fully healthy again, he’s coming back to a few key changes in personnel. The biggest change is the loss of Jarvis Landry. The receivers he has left aren’t exactly top tier talents, but there is depth so he’s likely to spread the ball around. The optimistic comparison is when Matthew Stafford lost Megatron. The other major development is the change at running back. Jay Ajayi is gone, and his multiple 200-yard games disappeared even before that. The Gore/Drake combo looks solid, but it’s hard to believe that they could produce multiple 200 yard games like Ajayi circa 2016. As a result, Tannehill will likely be throwing a little more this year than 2016. If he can keep his 2016 growth for a slightly increased workload this year, Tannehill could very well be on the cusp of a QB1/2 season. You can pretty much get him for free, so he could provide a good late round target for those who miss out on the elite QB1s.
Kenyan Drake: 235.9 total, 14.7 ppg (225 carries, 1035 yards, 7 TD, 2 fumbles lost; 45 Rec, 374 yards, 2 TD)
Frank Gore: 107.8 total, 6.7 ppg (150 carries, 585 yards, 4 TD, 1 fumble lost; 15 Rec, 123 yards, 0 TD)
Miami seems intent on a RBBC. I guess I don’t entirely blame them if they want to keep Drake’s legs fresh, but while Gore is still somehow producing he clearly isn’t the same running back he used to be. Drake should be the lead back with Gore providing regular relief. If the strategy works and Drake is able to stay mostly fresh for the whole season, expect him to have solid efficiency as a high-end RB2. Unfortunately Gore will probably not be fantasy relevant despite the reasonably high number of carries. He likely isn’t even going to be the beneficiary of a Drake injury as Kalen Ballage has shown some flashes. Unless you have a particularly deep league, Gore and Ballage are probably both best left on waivers.
Kenny Stills: 182.0 total, 11.4 ppg (50 Rec, 840 yards, 8 TD, 0 fumbles lost)
Danny Amendola: 180.3 total, 11.3 ppg (70 Rec, 763 yards, 6 TD, 1 fumble lost)
DeVante Parker: 137.5 total, 8.6 ppg (50 Rec, 635 yards, 4 TD, 0 fumbles lost)
Albert Wilson: 87.3 total, 5.5 ppg (35 Rec, 403 yards, 2 TD, 0 fumbles lost)
With Jarvis Landry gone, there are some serious targets up for grabs (no pun intended). By all accounts Amendola is locked in as the slot receiver. He’s no Landry and he’s a bit injury prone, but he’s still a reliable slot receiver which is worth a fair number of targets as a security blanket. Kenny Stills likely takes over the WR1 role, improving on some already surprisingly good numbers from last year. Both can be treated as respectable WR3’s for fantasy purposes. Parker and Wilson have more uncertain paths. Parker has all the talent to be a true WR1, but he’s struggled with consistency and focus throughout his career and now has a broken finger. He’ll likely continue to be involved just by virtue of his talent, but it’s hard to see him suddenly putting everything together this year when he’s failed to do so for the last 3 years. Don’t draft him with the intent of starting, but he has upside as a late round flyer. Wilson, meanwhile, was signed to a massive contract only for the Dolphins to not have a role for him. It sounds like the plan for now is to use him in a gimmicky Tavon Austin-type role. He’ll score a couple long touchdowns this season, but likely will not see enough volume to be anything other than a boom-or-bust flyer. His value would mostly come from an injury to one of the other 3 receivers.
Mike Gesicki: 96.8 total, 6.1 ppg (35 Rec, 438 yards, 3 TD, 0 fumbles lost)
Gesicki has plenty of talent and has repeatedly flashed it during camp. I would caution those locking him in as their starting tight end though that rookie tight ends are notoriously slow to gain value in fantasy as they are frequently rotated out when a blocking tight end is required. He should lead Miami’s tight ends in catches, but there will likely be enough of a split that Gesicki still won’t be a TE1. You’ll be disappointed if you draft him as anything other than a high-upside late round flyer.