Projecting Receptions by Position: AFC East

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Miami Dolphins

2017 Totals
Jay Cutler/Matt Moore/David Fales: 373 completions on 599 attempts
WR Group: 247 Receptions
RB Group: 70 Receptions
TE Group: 56 Receptions

2018 Projections
Ryan Tannehill: 345 completions on 525 attempts
WR Group: 215 Receptions
RB Group: 65 Receptions
TE Group: 65 Receptions

No matter which way you slice it, the Dolphins offense this year will not resemble the offense last year. Jay Ajayi was traded in the middle of last season and Damien Williams was let go at the end. Kenyan Drake is now paired with the immortal Frank Gore instead. Jarvis Landry was allowed to walk, so Albert Wilson and Danny Amendola were brought in to replace him. Dowell Loggains was brought in to be the new offensive coordinator (although this is still Adam Gase’s offense). Most importantly though, Ryan Tannehill is back. The middling defense also made some big moves of their own, although given that some were big additions while others were big losses I’m inclined to say that they will remain middling. Last time Tannehill was at the helm in 2016, Gase had him on pace for his fewest pass attempts of his career. However, that was on the heels of Jay Ajayi’s breakout season (I don’t care who your QB is, if your RB is racking up multiple 200 yard games you’re not going to throw very much). After hitting the other end of the spectrum with an entirely dysfunctional run game last year, the Gore/Drake combo should split the difference. The pass attempts should split the difference between the two years accordingly, which would come out to around 525 attempts. Without familiar security blanket Jarvis Landry, I would expect Tannheill’s accuracy to fall just a little bit, resulting in about 345 completions.

The Dolphins’ WR corps had an absurdly high target share the past few years, in large part due to feeding Jarvis Landry. Landry may be gone, but the WR group still is the deepest talent pool on the offense and should continue to command targets as such (although maybe not quite the 66% reception share from last year). The only thing that might throw a wrench it that plan is the revamped TE group. Gavin Escobar was never given a real chance behind Jason Witten in Dallas, and newly drafted Mike Gesicki is as highly touted as they come. Most importantly, Adam Gase had a history of heavy TE usage before he got to Miami. The only thing holding back the TE surge is the fact that it is newly revamped. I’d guess that we’ll only get a sneak peak this year while they gel, then next year is when we’ll have real breakout potential.

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