Projecting Receptions by Position: AFC South

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Indianapolis Colts

2017 Totals
Jacoby Brissett: 276 completions on 469 attempts
WR Group: 121 Receptions
RB Group: 59 Receptions
TE Group: 96 Receptions

2018 Projections
Andrew Luck: 365 completions on 600 attempts
WR Group: 165 Receptions
RB Group: 80 Receptions
TE Group: 120 Receptions

A lot of changes in Indianapolis this year, chief among them the looming return of Andrew Luck. For real this time. Alright, it’s still too early to say for sure, but the actions of the Colts front office sure seem to indicate confidence that he’ll be ready. You don’t skip out on QB in a QB-heavy draft if you’re worried you might need one. The big question now is whether Luck can stay healthy once he returns. Rookie guard Quenton Nelson will provide a much needed boost, but the entire offensive line has to do a better job of keeping Luck upright this time. Also of interest, new head coach Frank Reich. He’s stated that he’s aiming to bring the aggressive Eagles offense to Indy this year, a big departure from the previous scheme but something that should theoretically fit well with Luck’s play style given Luck’s proclivity with the no-huddle. Unfortunately, the Colts don’t have nearly the same talent on defense or in the running game as the Eagles did, so Luck is likely to come out firing after his prolonged absence. Assuming he is ready when the season starts and that he actually stays healthy, Luck will likely get up to around 600 attempts. Given the aggressive style of offense and Luck’s own rust, his accuracy will probably be a bit on the low side, resulting in around 365 completions.

Further mucking up the waters is the fact that Luck will have a lot of new faces to get used to in his new scheme. T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle are still around, but that’s about it. Donte Moncrief left for Jacksonville, with Ryan Grant now taking his place. Chester Rogers was there when Luck last played in 2016, but he didn’t do much then and hasn’t done much since. The immortal Frank Gore is gone, leaving behind a mess of a RBBC “headlined” by Marlon Mack. The only position that has substantially improved is the TE room, where Jack Doyle is now joined by Eric Ebron. I know, not exactly elite, but putting extra name-brand TEs on the field can only help Luck’s chances to survive this season, both in terms of blocking and providing a safety valve. In fact, the double safety valve will be especially important as Luck works his way back. I would not be surprised to see both TEs worthy of fantasy rosters this year, along with a T.Y. Hilton resurgence.

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