Projecting Receptions by Position: NFC East

Eli Manning

New York Giants

2017 Totals
Eli Manning: 352 completions on 571 attempts
WR Group: 172 Receptions
RB Group: 105 Receptions
TE Group: 96 Receptions

2018 Projections
Eli Manning: 335 completions on 550 attempts
WR Group: 185 Receptions
RB Group: 70 Receptions
TE Group: 80 Receptions

Well last year is one Eli Manning would probably prefer to forget. Fortunately for him, his supporting cast looks to be much stronger this year. The offensive line has been upgraded to something at least better than a sieve. Newly drafted Saquon Barkley should give the running game new life. Most importantly, Ben McAdoo’s predictable quick pass scheme is going to be replaced by some amalgam of west coast and power running. Not exactly sure what that love child will look like, but one thing is for sure; the onus will be placed on Manning to read the defense before the snap and make the appropriate adjustments. Eli is no Peyton when it comes to that, but he’s not exactly clueless either. I guess my idealized version of this offense is a ton of 21 personnel with a lot of play-action intermediate routes. Eli should be throwing less than previous years since there should theoretically be a reliable run game, so I’m projecting 550 pass attempts. The de-emphasis on quick routes for the sake of quick routes will likely bring Manning’s accuracy down a little bit, so probably around 61%. This translates to about 335 completions.

Between the presumably excess 21 personnel, the lack of depth at WR, and the fact that Evan Engram is really the only reliable “big” receiver the Giants have, I’m expecting more of an emphasis on TE than any of the previous schemes that are molding the Giants’ offense this year. There’s no reason to believe that Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard won’t eat; it’s just that the lack of depth behind them should result in an overall decrease in targets for the WR group. If the WR group does keep its reception total up, it will most likely be at the expense of the RB group. It’s just that this seems unlikely given that new offensive coordinator Mike Shula isn’t afraid to target his RB’s if they’re good receivers and new head coach Pat Shurmur actively tries to get his RB’s involved in the passing game. The RB group should command a similar proportion of receptions as Minnesota and Carolina had under Shurmur and Shula, respectively.


11 thoughts on “Projecting Receptions by Position: NFC East

Leave a Reply