Projecting Receptions by Position: NFC North


Green Bay Packers

2016 Totals*
Aaron Rodgers: 401 completions on 610 attempts
WR Group: 259 Receptions
RB Group: 78 Receptions
TE Group: 60 Receptions

* Due to significant time missed by Rodgers during the 2017 season and the consistency in key individuals, the 2016 stats are used as reference instead of 2017

2018 Projections
Aaron Rodgers: 380 completions on 575 attempts
WR Group: 230 Receptions
RB Group: 80 Receptions
TE Group: 70 Receptions

Joe Philbin returns to Green Bay where he led Aaron Rodgers to the best year of his career in 2011. It’s been a few years and there aren’t many other familiar faces around Rodgers, but Rodgers is set up fairly nicely. For starters, the 3-headed monster of Ty Montgomery, Aaron Jones, and Jamaal Williams gives the Pack its most potent run game since 2014, which means a balanced offense. And while the loss of Jordy Nelson hurts chemistry, it seems to me that between Davante Adams’ emergence as a true X receiver and Jimmy Graham’s red zone acumen the pass attack shouldn’t miss much of a beat. I’m still a little worried about the defense that has consistently been near the bottom of the league the past few years though. The Packers put a lot of draft capital into fixing it, but then again they’ve been doing that the past few years and don’t have much to show for it yet. Maybe 2018 is the year? Between a much improved run game, a still-strong passing attack, and potential improvement on defense, I think Rodgers’ pass attempts should come down a little from the ridiculous pace he’s been throwing at the past couple years. I project around 575 pass attempts. Assuming Philbin can bring back the glory days, Rodgers’ accuracy should come back up to around 66%, which comes out to about 380 completions.

While the pass attack overall should stay strong, the loss of Jordy does hurt the WR group in terms of platoon receptions. Davante Adams can absorb a good chunk of the between-the-20s targets that used to go to Jordy, but Jimmy Graham was brought in explicitly as THE red zone and short-yardage target and the underrated Lance Kendricks is still hanging around. A healthy TyMo should also command extra targets for the RB group. The Packers did draft several new WRs – and at least one of them will likely rise to a strong supporting role behind Adams and Randall Cobb – but there’s enough talent at other positions to siphon some of the target share away from the WR group.


11 thoughts on “Projecting Receptions by Position: NFC North

Leave a Reply