Let’s talk some Tampa Bay Rays baseball today, there are several things i want to address, the Longoria trade, should they deal Archer and Colome as well, is this team good enough to make a run, what does it need, and so on so forth, but before anything else, let me make a statement about this franchise.
The Tampa Bay Rays joined the MLB in the late 90’s making their debut in the 98 season in their short history, they’ve made the postseason 4 times, including 2 division titles and an appearance in the Fall Classic, that might not seem much, but given all the circumstances it actually is a lot.
You’ll be hard pressed to find a franchise in any of the other 4 major sports in the US more set up for failure, take this into consideration.
Tampa was an expansion franchise in 97, by that time the salaries were increasing rapidly unlike when the first expansion teams were created, Tampa was a small market with little revenue to spend, unlike their expansion counterpart the Arizona Diamondbacks who hit the ground running with a brand new, much better ballpark, spending tons of money early, the Rays were inserted into the AL East home of the Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles and Blue Jays all in the upper third of the league in revenue, market size, and budget, all of this plus what now is an atrocious ballpark and you get a team set up for failure.
Now to my first roster related topic, Chris Archer, should he be traded?
Absolutely not, it goes without saying that you should always listen, but actually dealing him without being completely overwhelmed is a bad idea, Chris was ranked 16th in the trade value series by Dave Cameron this past year, for some context Jose Quintana was in the 42nd spot, he is incredibly valuable, down below you’ll see his contract
Last 2 years are team options
You can’t get cheap talent like this, and for a franchise with such a small budget, it’s even more important, the Rays have a talented team.
Kiermaier, Souza, Dickerson, Snell, Duffy and their farm system is pretty good, it doesn’t take much more to compete for a postseason spot from there, trading Archer now, you would not get peak value out of him, and also give up any chance of making the postseason for the forseeable future when you already have a solid core, with a talented farm. I just don’t see that offer out there.
Beyond Robles Washington doesn’t have much, Cubs best asset to deal is probably Happ, which is very underwhelming, Red Sox no, the only 3 teams with the pieces to do it are LAD, NYY and HOU, all are known for hanging on to their prospects, LA won’t trade Buehler, NYY won’t include Torres, HOU acquired Cole, not looking to empty the farm, so you’re better off, by keeping him
Alex Colome why should they deal him
If Billy Beane has taught us anything, is that you sell high on relievers, they fluctuate, they break down and regardless of it, 99 out of 100 times you are likely to get the better end of it, consider this the Andrew Miller was a win-win trade right, he has been great for the Tribe, but inspite of it, right now he has 1 year of control and he’s no longer worth all of the prospects that the Yankees got for him, same goes for Chapman and tons of others, Alex right now is a valuable piece, but he’s not Kenley Jansen, he’s just pretty good, if you can get a good prospect haul for him, absolutely do it, and then you sign a Sergio Romo, Bruce Rondon, Seung-hwan Oh on the cheap, hoping one of them pans out, bullpen value fluctuates too much to hold on to guys like Colome
The Evan Longoria was a solid one, Span’s numbers the past 2 years were deceiving, i have no clue why the Giants put him in CF, stick him in Left and his WAR will go up; can still provide good value, both pitchers look decent,
And i like Christian Arroyo’s hit tool, for Evan, i think that’s ok; he’s not that great anymore, still good, but more of a 3 win player than a 5 win one.
Anyway that’s it, feel free to comment, suggest and anything else you can think of.