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Jerry Dipoto made another trade, the Cleveland Browns are an underdog in their next matchup, Alabama made the playoffs winning yet another argument vote, facts that by know you are taught to expect. First and foremost i’m not condemning the move, nor do i think it has no upside, but in a risk/reward evaluation, there were better ways to address Center Field for the Seattle Mariners.
Looking around the league there’s obviously a connection between speed and great defense in the Outfield, but it’s not like bad plate discipline/ power hitter where you just know it won’t work on the long haul, i’m talking to you, Rougned Odor.
Billy Hamilton, Byron Buxton great defenders, Delino DeShields not so much, therefore we cannot assume Dee Gordon will be Kevin Kiermaier out there, who by the way is no Usain Bolt. Dee Gordon is set to make 10.5 million this year, and 37 mil overall with a 2021 vesting option of 14 in 2021, i’d call that a lot of things, a bargain not being one of them, let’s not forget he turns 30 right at the beginning of the season.
Here’s my problem with Gordon his success is dependant on a high BABIP, to drive up his AVG, he is incapable of Walking and his 15.1 K% is not exactly great, considering it puts him in line with Nolan Arenado (14.9), AJ Pollock (15.0), Ben Zobrist (14.8) and Brian McCann (15.2), with no power whatsoever i’d prefer a lower number, given all these hurdles that he overcomes to still be a good player, his upside is limited.
A 4.8 WAR season like he had in 2015, is as high as he can get, and to do that, he needed to deviate .38 percentage points from his career BABIP, a deviation in defensive performance, 6.4 UZR which he only matched this year.
Steamer projects him at 1.7 WAR, ZIPS has him at 2.3, the numbers are right in line with his career norms, my point is you just traded away your second best prospect which means less than it sounds, given how poor their farm system is, but still a good prospect as stated below by prospect guru Eric Longenhagen:
“Nick Neidert is a good prospect. Saw him at 87-91 this year. Plus changeup, plus command. Fastball’s movement, Neidert’s 3/4s slot, and his cross-body delivery allow it – and his breaking ball – to play up against RHH. Think’s he’s a weird, reverse splits, #4 starter. A 50.”
An ok one and a fringe one for a player with a 1.5-2 WAR floor that is while playing good defense which you have no idea he can, and his upside is 1 maybe 2 WAR more, that’s it and all his value comes from defense, baserunning, and singles, that’s not that bad, but i’d rather have Jarrod Dyson back at a lower price, 6-8 mil per year, 2 maybe 3 years (vesting option) while keeping my prospects, they are virtually the same player, Dyson doesn’t hit for as high an AVG but his 8.0 BB% crushes Gordon’s 4.5.
Look at their career numbers.
293/329/367 Slash Line
4.5 BB% 15.1 K% .305 wOBA 93 wRC+
711 Games 3012 PA 11.6 WAR
258/325/352 Slash Line
8.0 BB% 16.3 K% .299 wOBA 86 wRC+
661 Games 1929 PA 14.8 WAR
Now let’s look at their Steamer projections for next year
280/317/360 Slash Line
4.6 BB% 15.1 K% .295 wOBA 85wRC+
144 Games 651 PA 1.7 WAR
261/328/369 Slash Line
7.7 BB% 15.2 K% .304 wOBA 85wRC+
105 Games 415 PA 1.6 WAR
What does this show, Dyson is a better player than Gordon, no he isn’t but he’d be cheaper and wouldn’t cost prospects.