Advertisements

Tristan Beckmann’s College Basketball Bracketology (2/14/2019)

Welcome back to the third edition of my College Basketball Bracketology, where I project the NCAA Tournament field and matchups as we lead up to Selection Sunday. I should be back on schedule now after delaying this post until today. You should expect the next Bracketology to be released on Sunday, Monday, or Tuesday. With that said, what a week of college hoops we’ve had so far and yet we still haven’t even reached the weekend, where we will witness three matchups between teams ranked inside the AP Top 25 poll.

Sadly, my Louisville Cardinals collapsed while holding a 23 point second half lead over #2 Duke on Tuesday night, en route to a 71-69 Blue Devils win. While it didn’t affect their seeding much, they’ve still moved way down from their position in last week’s Bracketology. Michigan got stunned by a struggling Penn State team on the road, Virginia rallied to beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill, and LSU stunned Kentucky on a buzzer beating tip in. There was so much more chaos around the nation but it’ll have to wait, as it’s time to run through the procedures and get into my bracket!

In this edition, per usual, I’ve projected seeding and matchups for all tournament teams. College basketball fans and experts abroad have started to gain a decent understanding of the contenders and pretenders in each college basketball conference, and I’m as big of a college hoops fan as you’ll find. Some teams are distancing themselves from the bubble, but some teams continue to remain clustered around it.

My process is pretty simple actually. Firstly, I’ve compiled a list of college basketball teams who realistically still have a chance at making the NCAA Tournament. Secondly, I’ve used the brand new NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) Rankings as a seeding criteria for all teams, which will also be heavily used by the actual selection committee. Lastly, I’ve looked at every team’s current record, strength of schedule, and used the NCAA’s Quadrant Wins System to analyze the quality of their respective wins and losses.

After I have made a judgment on all teams, I begin to seed the 68 chosen teams from 1 to 68. Ranking them this way allows me to separate them into seed lines (#1 to #16). Finally, I place the teams into regions based on their respective seeds, conferences, and game location (for the top 16 seeds). I tried my best to keep conference opponents from playing until at least the Sweet 16, but there may have been situations where this wasn’t realistically possible.

There are three rules that I’ve started assuring that they are being followed. Firstly, I tried to make the top four seeds in each region add up to similar overall region numbers, to make the regions competitive and balanced. With this in mind, there was a two-number differential between all four regions. I also made sure I never put teams from the same conferences on the same top four seed line. And lastly, I assured that the number one overall seed Duke would not have the best two seed in their bracket.

All in all, the process I went through definitely isn’t easy, but it’s fun to look at the possibilities already. I’ve tried my best to simulate what the actual selection committee would be doing if the tournament had to be seeded today. So after a crazy start to the week in the college hoops world, let’s check into my third Bracketology projection!

East Region (Washington, D.C.):

Columbia, South Carolina

#1 Duke vs. #16 Quinnipiac/Norfolk State

#8 St. John’s vs. #9 Minnesota

Jacksonville, Florida

#4 LSU vs. #13 Yale

#5 Texas Tech vs. #12 Liberty

Salt Lake City, Utah

#3 Houston vs. #14 Montana

#6 Florida State vs. #11 Seton Hall

Des Moines, Iowa

#2 Michigan State vs. #15 Bowling Green

#7 Mississippi State vs. #10 Lipscomb

West Region (Anaheim, CA):

Salt Lake City, Utah

#1 Gonzaga vs. #16 Bucknell

#8 Baylor vs. #9 Auburn

Hartford, Connecticut

#4 Louisville vs. #13 Old Dominion

#5 Iowa vs. #12 Hofstra

Tulsa, Oklahoma

#3 Kansas vs. #14 South Dakota State

#6 Virginia Tech vs. #11 UCF/Arizona State

Des Moines, Iowa

#2 Michigan vs. #15 Radford

#7 Washington vs. #10 Alabama

South Region (Louisville, KY):

Columbus, Ohio

#1 Tennessee vs. #16 Prairie-View/Robert Morris

#8 Syracuse vs. #9 TCU

San Jose, California

#4 Wisconsin vs. #13 Vermont

#5 Kansas State vs. #12 Belmont

Hartford, Connecticut

#3 Marquette vs. #14 UC Irvine

#6 Maryland vs. #11 Texas

Jacksonville, Florida

#2 North Carolina vs. #15 Texas State

#7 Cincinnati vs. #10 VCU

Midwest Region (Kansas City, MO):

Columbia, South Carolina

#1 Virginia vs. #16 Sam Houston State

#8 Ohio State vs. #9 Ole Miss

San Jose, California

#4 Nevada vs. #13 Davidson

#5 Villanova vs. #12 New Mexico State

Tulsa, Oklahoma

#3 Purdue vs. #14 Northern Kentucky

#6 Iowa State vs. #11 NC State/Temple

Columbus, Ohio

#2 Kentucky vs. #15 Loyola-Chicago

#7 Buffalo vs. #10 Wofford

Bubble:

Last Four In:

NC State (18-7, 6-6 AAC)

UCF (18-5, 8-3 AAC)

Temple (18-7, 8-4 AAC)

Arizona State (16-8, 7-5 PAC-12)

First Four Out:

Arkansas (14-10, 5-6 SEC)

Utah State (19-6, 9-3 MWC)

Clemson (15-9, 5-6 ACC)

Butler (14-11, 5-7 BIG EAST)

Conference Count-Ups:

American Athletic Conference (4 Teams): #12 Houston, #27 Cincinnati, #44 UCF, #45 Temple.

Atlantic Coast Conference (8 Teams): #1 Duke, #3 Virginia, #7 North Carolina, #14 Louisville, #21 Virginia Tech, #24 Florida State, #30 Syracuse, #43 NC State.

Atlantic Sun (2 Teams): #40 Lipscomb, #50 Liberty.

Atlantic 10 (2 Teams): #37 VCU, #53 Davidson.

Big 12 (7 Teams): #10 Kansas, #18 Kansas State, #19 Texas Tech, #22 Iowa State, #29 Baylor, #33 TCU, #41 Texas.

Big East (4 Teams): #9 Marquette, #17 Villanova, #32 St. John’s, #42 Seton Hall.

Big Ten (8 Teams): #6 Michigan, #8 Michigan State, #11 Purdue, #15 Wisconsin, #20 Iowa, #23 Maryland, #31 Ohio State, #36 Minnesota.

MAC (2 Teams): #28 Buffalo, #59 Bowling Green.

PAC 12 (2 Teams): #26 Washington, #46 Arizona State.

Southeastern Conference (7 Teams): #2 Tennessee, #5 Kentucky, #13 LSU, #25 Mississippi State, #34 Ole Miss, #35 Auburn, #38 Alabama.

Singular Bid League Squads (22 Teams): #4 Gonzaga, #16 Nevada, #39 Wofford, #47 Hofstra, #48 New Mexico State, #49 Belmont, #51 Yale, #52 Vermont, #54 Old Dominion, #55 South Dakota State, #56 Northern Kentucky, #57 UC Irvine, #58 Montana, #60 Texas State, #61 Loyola-Chicago, #62 Radford, #63 Bucknell, #64 Sam Houston State, #65 Prairie-View, #66 Quinnipiac, #67 Norfolk State, #68 Robert Morris.

Thanks for reading! I hope you enjoyed. If you have any insight, opinions, or questions about my Bracketology projection, feel free to contact me on Twitter @TBeckmann24. Have a great rest of your day and peace!

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: