Note: all points are calculated with PPR scoring
Team Reception Breakdown
Alex Smith: 285.9 total, 17.9 ppg (350/525 passing, 3938 yards, 23 TD, 8 INT; 324 yards rushing, 4 TD, 2 fumbles lost)
Ever the ultra-efficient passer, Smith’s new home is set up much like his old one in terms of where the talent is. He should feel right at home, and I would expect his numbers to show it. He should continue to be a solid fantasy QB who may win you a couple games but at worst won’t lose you any.
Derrius Guice: 183 total, 11.4 ppg (230 carries, 966 yards, 8 TD, 2 fumbles lost; 20 Rec, 164 yards, 1 TD)
Chris Thompson: 175.2 total, 11.0 ppg (60 carries, 306 yards, 1 TD, 1 fumble lost; 55 Rec; 556 yards, 5 TD)
While Guice should definitely get the majority of touches out of the backfield and flirt with 1000 yards rushing, don’t all jump aboard the Guice train just yet. Thompson is an electric playmaker out of the backfield, and as long as he’s healthy he will get his touches. There should be enough volume with Alex Smith at QB to support both as solid RB2/3 candidates this year. Guice could become a true workhorse if Thompson goes down again, though Samaje Perine may gain some value then too.
UPDATE: With Derrius Guice out for the season with a torn ACL, this backfield goes back to looking a lot like it did last year in terms of touches. Thompson will see more touches, but I would imagine he will be less efficient with those touches considering he’s planning on playing at less than 100% while only mostly recovered from his broken leg last year. Give him a small bump, but nothing drastic. Opportunity exists for Perine and Rob Kelley if either one can seize it, but if their ineffectiveness from last year spills over neither will be viable for fantasy. Alex Smith should also be bumped down a little without a strong run game to help him, but not enough to change his status as a respectable QB1.
UPDATE 2: The signing of Adrian Peterson throws yet another wrench into the gears. Thompson is the only running back really worth anything at this point. Peterson, Kelley, and Perine are only worth taking as very late round flyers, though there are probably better high-upside players.
Jamison Crowder: 175.8 total, 11.0 ppg (75 Rec, 908 yards, 2 TD, 1 fumble lost)
Josh Doctson: 142.2 total, 8.9 ppg (45 Rec, 612 yards, 6 TD, 0 fumbles lost)
Paul Richardson: 86.4 total, 5.4 ppg (30 Rec, 444 yards, 2 TD, 0 fumbles lost)
Yes, Richardson got a fair bit of change to come to Washington. That does not mean he’s automatically the WR1 there. Crowder is still the go-to receiver of the bunch, especially with checkdown king Alex Smith in town. Richardson may cut into Doctson’s totals a bit, but ultimately Richardson is still going to be the deep threat to Doctson’s X-receiver role. Crowder should be a consistent contributor, Doctson could post some flex weeks, and Richardson will be a boom-or-bust flyer.
Jordan Reed: 171.5 total, 10.7 ppg (70 Rec, 735 yards, 5 TD, 1 fumble lost)
Vernon Davis: 81.3 total, 5.1 ppg (30 Rec, 393 yards, 2 TD, 0 fumbles lost)
The numbers here require some explanation. If Reed stays healthy, he should come near – maybe even exceed – the numbers here. However, since he seems largely incapable of staying healthy, consider this projection a ceiling. On the flip side, the above projection for Davis assumes that Reed will miss 4 games. If Reed stays healthy, Davis will hold little fantasy value.