Why Joe Kelly will see a major upgrade this week

Joe Kelly of the Boston Red Sox has been very impressive this season. He is 3-0 with a 1.10 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 32.1 innings. A major improvement after he posted a 5.18 ERA last season. On top of this, Kelly has seen a major jump in velocity. He has thrown the 2nd and 3rd hardest pitches of the season, just behind Chapman’s 102.9 MHP fastball on June 21st. According to Statcast, Joe Kelly’s two-seam fastball is the second hardest pitch in all of baseball, just behind Trevor Rosenthal’s four-seamer. As crazy as it seems, Kelly’s fastball on average has been harder than Chapman’s, crazy stuff.

Despite Kelly’s dominance, his card is still just a 68 overall, not even a bronze…

Where I feel he will get a downgrade

66 stamina to 37 stamina (He has not pitched more than 3 innings in any game this year)

Where I feel he will get an upgrade

60 K/9 to 70 K/9 (24 K’s in 32.2 innings)

64 HR/9 to 85 HR/9 (0 HR’s given up in 32.2 innings)

57 H/9 to 70 H/9 (22 hits in 32.2 innings pitched)

56 Clutch to 75 Clutch (In Late/Close games his ERA sits at 0.79)

85 Two-Seam Velocity to 99 Two-Seam Velocity (See information in opening paragraph)

85 Four-Seam Velocity to 98 Four-Seam Velocity (See information in opening paragraph)

95 Sinker Velocity to 99 Sinker Velocity (See information in opening paragraph)


These stats would result in a 78 overall player. But although he may only see an upgrade to 78, that does not mean there is not more to come from this hard-throwing right-hander.

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